Fear excess away from the math average


  • The sense of extreme fear is divergent with the levels of the mathematical averages.
  • Long-term moving averages exert an attraction factor that is not priced in.
  • The ETH/USD pair shows an important point of attraction in the price level of $178

Thursday is the day for a break on the crypto board after two weeks since the collapse caused by the panic of COVID-19. The money has re-entered the market even though fears persist among investors in the segment.

The market sentiment indicator that makes up the alternative.me site is today at level 14 – extreme fear. 

This data clearly shows the disappointment the behaviour of the leading crypto assets has produced during this crisis. After the long crypto winter of 2018 and 2019, prices managed to escape the bearish scenarios, and the market expected Bitcoin to reclaim its position as a safe-haven asset. 

This scenario didn’t happen as expected, and the race to liquidity caught up with Bitcoin and the entire crypto segment.

This disappointment would justify the current level of fear, as the price is not justified when current prices move very close to their long-term moving averages. These types of moving averages, such as the SMA200, have a reliable power of attraction over prices since they are the reference for many analysts when looking for an average reference level for the price of an asset.

Long-term moving averages are not wrong, so it is probably the extreme fear feeling that is not very well-calibrated.

ETH/BTC Daily Chart

The ETH/BTC pair is currently trading at the 0.0203 price level and appears to be heading towards the 0.020 price congestion support level.

The 200-period simple moving average in the daily range is at 0.021, while the exponential average of 50 seems to be heading towards that area as well.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at 0.021, then the second at 0.022 and the third one at 0.023.

Below the current price, the first support level is at 0.20, then the second at 0.0188 and the third one at 0.018.

The MACD on the daily chart shows a flattening of the curve at the fast average and is close to catching a profile that will allow it to face a possible crossing of the signal line.

The DMI on the daily chart shows how the bears are following their soft downward trajectory, too smooth…The bears are not reacting to the upward movement, transmitting a worrying lack of mood.

 

BTC/USD Daily Chart

The BTC/USD pair is currently trading at the price level of $6642, the second consecutive day in negative territory, now at the doors of the long-term bearish channel roof.

The 200-period simple moving average is at the $8400 price level, while the 50-period exponential moving average is at the $7500 level.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $6750, then the second at $6875 and the third one at $7150.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $6600, then the second at $6500 and the third one at $6400.

The MACD on the daily chart shows a continuation of the bullish cross but with a small loss of momentum, a healthy development for the medium term.

The DMI on the daily chart shows the bears losing strength as the bulls gain strength and approaching the critical moment when the two market forces collide.

 

ETH/USD Daily Chart

The ETH/USD pair is currently trading at the price level of $135.5 after failing to gain support from price congestion at $140.

The SMA200, SMA100 and EMA50 moving averages converge today at the same level of $178, creating a strong point of attraction for the spot price.

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $140, then the second at $150 and the third one at $155.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $130, then the second at $125 and the third one at $120.

The MACD on the daily chart shows a very timid bullish development, needing an upward momentum to consolidate the underlying bullish momentum.

The DMI on the daily chart shows both bears and bulls at the same levels as yesterday, a sign of a lack of direction in the short term.

 

XRP/USD Daily Chart

The XRP/USD pair is currently trading at a price level of $0.161 and continues to lack bullish momentum. 

The main moving averages are widely distributed, with the SMA200 at $0.242, then the SMA100 at $0.224 and finally the EMA50 at $0.205

Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $0.165, then the second at $0.183 and the third at $0.202.

Below the current price, the first support level is at $0.15, then the second at $0.14 and the third one at $0.132.

The MACD on the daily chart shows that the fast average does not gain distance from the signal line, which would be advisable for short-term development.

The DMI on the daily chart shows that the bears and bulls are holding at levels similar to those of recent days. This situation reflects the lack of visibility in the short term.

 

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